A new super-careful estimate of a global temperature trend based on the satellite record

Some very sophisticated Chinese mathematicians have been at work. I reproduce their conclusions only below. The point to note is that they found a warming trend over the last 40 years of only fourteen hundredths of one degree per decade. I quote:

"the total tropospheric temperature trend derived from TMT was 0.142 ± 0.045 K/decade from 1979 to 2021".

That's about as tiny a trend as you can imagine and is certainly no cause for alarm. Global warming is totally trivial. It's to laugh at. The globe HAS been warming but at a not remotely catastrophic level. Whether ANY warming will take place in the future is unknown. Claims that it will are mere speculation based on a very dubious hypothesis of continuity.

Mid-Tropospheric Layer Temperature Record Derived From Satellite Microwave Sounder Observations With Backward Merging Approach

Cheng-Zhi Zou, Hui Xu, Xianjun Hao, Qian Liu

9 Conclusion

We have developed STAR V5.0 TMT time series for the period from late 1978 to present using a backward merging approach. The RTMT time series during 2002–present based on AMSU-A and ATMS observations onboard satellites in stable sun-synchronous orbits was used as the reference and earlier satellites before NOAA-19 were adjusted to RTMT in the backward merging. Brightness temperatures from NOAA-10 to NOAA-19 were recalibrated first before they were merged with RTMT and a semi-physical model was developed for diurnal drift adjustment. Adjustments of channel frequency differences between MSU and AMSU-A companion channels and instrument blackbody warm target effects were also conducted on observed radiances. The recalibration and adjustments for diurnal drift and warm target effects had effectively removed satellite bias drifts and resulted in inter-consistent satellite radiance data with small inter-satellite difference trends and standard deviations. Major differences in STAR V5.0 from the existing data sets is that recalibration has removed large spurious warming drifts in NOAA-11, NOAA-12, and NOAA-14 and a large cooling drift in NOAA-15 observations. The removal of the spurious warming drifts in NOAA-11 to NOAA-14 resulted in the warming trends in STAR V5.0 during 1979–2021 much smaller than the existing versions of the STAR and RSS data sets but close to the latest version of the UAH data set. After removal of the lower-stratospheric cooling effect, the total tropospheric temperature trend derived from TMT was 0.142 ± 0.045 K/decade from 1979 to 2021. This total trend was separated by two distinct periods with trends during the latest half period were nearly doubled the earlier half period over ocean and the globe, showing accelerating tropospheric warming. The estimated acceleration rate of the tropospheric warming was about 0.029–0.39 K decade?2 over ocean and the globe.

The STAR V5.0 data set. also include TUT, TLS and TLT time series. Similar backward merging approaches and diurnal adjustment algorithms as used in the TMT development were applied to TUT and TLS channels for their development. TLT is obtained using regressions of TMT, TUT, and TLS following approaches in Spencer et al. (2017).

The STAR V5.0 CDR for TLT, TMT, TUT, and TLS is publicly accessible from the STAR website with a URL address: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/mscat/products.php . Plans are also being developed to transition the STAR V5.0 data set to NOAA/NCEI for operational archiving and distribution for user applications.

The cut-off dates for MSU and AMSU-A observations used in STAR V5.0 from all earlier satellites were before the end of 2018. Future update of STAR V5.0 will only need update of the ATMS observations in RTMT. The update of the monthly RTMT has been made every month for ATMS observations onboard SNPP and NOAA-20. Future JPSS satellites such as JPSS-2 are planned to be launched onto the same stable orbits as in SNPP and NOAA-20. When ATMS observations from these satellites are available, they will be simply added to RTMT without the need for diurnal drift adjustment. Such a STAR V5.0 data set is expected to extend to the next 20 years for climate change monitoring and assessment in the atmospheric temperatures.


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