Pesky ozone hole blamed on COOLING

Despite the Montreal Protcol banning "ozone destroying" CFCs now having been in force for many years, the Antarctic ozone "hole" has not been playing ball. Instead of shrinking, it just waxes and wanes each year as it always has, with some very large holes recently.

But what about the Arctic hole? It is even more pesky. It has been at its biggest extent recently. How to explain that? Somebody must be desperate as they are now explaining it by recent COOLING. Cooling in the Arctic? It is a Warmist item of faith that the Arctic is WARMING! It looks like you can't have your hole and your warming too!


Arctic winter 2010/2011 at the brink of an ozone hole


The Arctic stratospheric winter of 2010/2011 was one of the coldest on record with a large loss of stratospheric ozone. Observations of temperature, ozone, nitric acid, water vapor, nitrous oxide, chlorine nitrate and chlorine monoxide from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) onboard ENVISAT are compared to calculations with a chemical transport model (CTM). There is overall excellent agreement between the model calculations and MIPAS observations, indicating that the processes of denitrification, chlorine activation and catalytic ozone depletion are sufficiently well represented. Polar vortex integrated ozone loss reaches 120 Dobson Units (DU) by early April 2011. Sensitivity calculations with the CTM give an additional ozone loss of about 25 DU at the end of the winter for a further cooling of the stratosphere by 1 K, showing locally near-complete ozone depletion (remaining ozone <200 ppbv) over a large vertical extent from 16 to 19 km altitude. In the CTM a 1 K cooling approximately counteracts a 10% reduction in stratospheric halogen loading, a halogen reduction that is expected to occur in about 13 years from now. These results indicate that severe ozone depletion like in 2010/2011 or even worse could appear for cold Arctic winters over the next decades if the observed tendency for cold Arctic winters to become colder continues into the future.



  1. Yes, cooling.

    This is one of the signatures of an enhanced greenhouse effect: the surface and troposphere warm, but the stratosphere, which exists above the effective radiating layer cools. Global warming due to increased solar radiation would warm the stratosphere, troposphere and surface.

    A cooling stratosphere was predicted at least as far back as 1988 and soundings of atmospheric temperature have been showing it for some time.

    Here is an early mention of it:

    "Since the dawn of the industrial era, the atmospheric concentrations of several radiatively active gases have been increasing as a result of human activities. The radiative heating from this inadvertent experiment has driven the climate system out of equilibrium with the incoming solar energy. According to the greenhouse theory of climate change, the climate system will be restored to equilibrium by a warming of the surfacetroposphere system and a cooling of the stratosphere."

    V. Ramanathan (15 April 1988) The Greenhouse Theory of Climate Change: A Test by an Inadvertent Global Experiment, Science, Vol. 240 no. 4850 pp. 293-299
    DOI: 10.1126/science.240.4850.293


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