By JR on Wednesday, June 29, 2016
The Brexit hysteria continues
The anti-democratic thinking of many of the establishment people behind the "Remain" vote is now clear. Many of these miserable elitists are agitating for the exit not to be implemented. Parliament could do that but it would create an unprecedented constitutional crisis. The Brexit MPs would simply not allow it. They could bring parliament to a standstil by voting "No" to every government bill until the referendum is honoured. So it's all just big talk from little people. If they persist with their agitation it will only brand them permanently as the worms they are.
The EU mandarins are clearly furious and are suggesting that Britain will not get a good trade deal when it exits. But in the end they are just public servants and it is the national governments that will have the final say.
France is once again making highly sympathetic noises: 'We must put an end to this sad and finicky Europe. Too often it is intrusive on details and desperately absent on what's essential,' [Prime Minister] Valls said. 'We must break away from the dogma of ever more Europe. Europe must act not by principle but when it is useful and pertinent.'"
And the German motor vehicle manufacturers are arguing emphatically for free trade arrangements to continue. They sell 800,000 cars into the British market every year so you can understand why: "German manufacturers last night demanded that Britain be allowed to continue trading with the EU without any barriers. The car-making industry said punishing Britain makes no sense – and it called on the German chancellor to give the UK a favourable trade deal
It is clearly in the best financial interests of both Britian and the EU to continue free trade arrangements so it will happen. Britain buys quite a lot more from Europe than it sells into Europe so a collapse of free trade would actually hit the EU the hardest
There is an extraordinarily pessimistic article here in which a Brussels-based journalist argues that Britain will get a very harsh deal on exit -- but he is obviously listening to the EU mandarins only, not the national leaders.
He draws on the Greek experience to argue that the EU will be very demanding. But I think he draws exactly the wrong conclusion from the Greek experience. Greece had many billions of its debts written off -- and the EU got very little in return. The EU can clearly be very forgiving if it thinks it is worthwhile -- and free trade was the very foundation of the EU.
It's amusing that the Brexit vote has spooked sharemarket investors worldwide. British shares were down a bit on the most recent reports but the losses in other countries were mostly much bigger. It's just nervousness on the part of shareholders who don't understand what is going on. The businesses underlying the shares are still there much as before so the "losses" will mostly be reversed in the not too distant future --JR.
Chancellor George Osborne says robust contingency plans are in place for the immediate financial aftermath of #Brexit