By JR on Thursday, February 04, 2016
Wotta lotta bull...
England had a lot of flooding last year, caused mainly by neglect of flood defences during 13 years of Labour party rule. But Uncle Tom Cobleigh and all below are determined to say it was all caused by global warming. You immediately begin to wonder why they bother. Since there has been no global warming for many years it can't have caused ANYTHING! See the graph below
So the article is solid BS from beginning to end. But it's just modelling anyway, which proves nothing. Actual data were obviously too boring for them.
The sad thing is that some people have taken the trash seriously. One of Britain's Left-leaning papers has a big splash on it. So the myths about the flooding will grow
Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts
By Nathalie Schaller and many others
A succession of storms reaching southern England in the winter of 2013/2014 caused severe floods and £451 million insured losses. In a large ensemble of climate model simulations, we find that, as well as increasing the amount of moisture the atmosphere can hold, anthropogenic warming caused a small but significant increase in the number of January days with westerly flow, both of which increased extreme precipitation. Hydrological modelling indicates this increased extreme 30-day-average Thames river flows, and slightly increased daily peak flows, consistent with the understanding of the catchment’s sensitivity to longer-duration precipitation and changes in the role of snowmelt. Consequently, flood risk mapping shows a small increase in properties in the Thames catchment potentially at risk of riverine flooding, with a substantial range of uncertainty, demonstrating the importance of explicit modelling of impacts and relatively subtle changes in weather-related risks when quantifying present-day effects of human influence on climate.
Nature Climate Change. (2016). doi:10.1038/nclimate2927