Poll finds no Julia Gillard Government MP would survive election in Queensland, with 23% primary vote
By JR on Saturday, May 19, 2012
Qld. is the "must win" state to form a Federal government
QUEENSLANDERS are waiting to smash Labor out of the state. Support for federal Labor has collapsed to a mere 23 per cent in Queensland, the latest Galaxy poll conducted exclusively for The Courier-Mail shows.
No federal Labor MPs would be left in the Sunshine State if this result were repeated at the next election.
And the majority of voters say this humiliation would be just desserts for Labor. Almost 60 per cent of respondents to the poll said Labor deserved to be reduced to a rump of one or two seats in Queensland.
Under Julia Gillard, Labor's primary vote has, for the second time, fallen to the lowest level recorded in the history of the Galaxy poll. The 23 per cent primary vote marks a slump of more than 10 points since the last election. It's a decline of seven points since the last state-based federal poll in November and takes Labor back to its low recorded in a Galaxy poll last August.
The Liberal National Party primary vote is now at 56 per cent. This would see Labor crushed in Queensland by 64 per cent to 36 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis, assuming preference flows from the past election.
The collapse in support suggests federal Labor has not gained any benefit after voters took out their anger on former premier Anna Bligh in March.
Galaxy chief David Briggs said the dire poll for federal Labor was in line with the two-party preferred figure observed in the state election. "Support for the federal Labor Party has slumped in Queensland. Voters look like they are prepared to give Julia Gillard's federal team the same treatment that was meted out to the Bligh government in the recent state election," Mr Briggs said. The poll surveyed 800 people across Queensland last Tuesday and Wednesday.
It came just over a week after the Government used its Budget to promise $5 billion in new handouts to ease cost-of-living pressures for families and people on low incomes. In the same week, the Government starting running advertisements promoting its coming suite of tax cuts and welfare boosts designed to compensate for the carbon tax.
But community opposition to the carbon tax appears to be growing stronger as the July 1 start date approaches. Only 25 per cent of voters supported the carbon tax and 72 were opposed, the poll found. Among Labor supporters, a small majority of 54 per cent supported the carbon tax. But among the LNP supporters who Labor needs to win over, only 8 per cent backed the tax.
Opinions have hardened in the nine months since a Galaxy poll in August found 28 per cent supported the tax and 67 per cent were opposed.