Climate crisis made severe rains behind Europe’s 2021 floods ‘up to nine times’ more likely

This is just modelling.  There is no actual evidence for the claim

The extreme rainfall that triggered devastating and deadly flooding across western Europe last month was made between 1.2 and nine times more likely by the climate crisis, a rapid analysis finds.

Severe downpours similar to those suffered in countries including Germany, Belgium and Switzerland last month are now 3 to 19 per cent heavier because of human-driven global heating, the research says.

Previous rainfall records were smashed in parts of Germany and Belgium last month, causing rivers to burst their banks and unleash deadly waters.

The unprecedented flooding killed at least 220 people in Germany and Belgium, and caused £4.9bn (€5.5bn) worth of damage in Germany alone.

“Climate change is hitting us everywhere now,” Dr Maarten van Aalst, one of the research authors and director of the international Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, told a press briefing.

“I hope it’s a wake-up call to not just people that have been affected, but people elsewhere [too].

“We are facing more extreme events of many kinds, and the only thing we can do is to close the tap of increasing greenhouse gas emissions ... and to prepare for the more extreme climate that we live in.”

Similar rainfall events are currently expected to occur around once every 400 years for any given region in western Europe, the analysis says.

“Even with climate change, this was a very rare event,” said Dr van Aalst.

“But this is just one event in one place that is happening every 400 years. If you look around the world, we’re going to be seeing many of those things that only happen once every 400 years.”

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