It could theoretically. But the claim that China will shift to "green" electricity in replacement for coal is a bit of a laugh. Only a Western Greenie would believe that of China. They have been very enthusiastic builders of coal-fired generators.
And China's limits on Australian wine need to be seen in conjunction with the fact that China already produces quite a lot of its own wine. But tastes in wine are very individual so it is clear that many Chinese prefer Australian wines. So the non-availablity of Australian wines will be felt in China
And the block on Australian coal is already being felt. Chinese power stations are already running out, causing blackouts. Coal is a very common mineral worldwide so Australian coal could theoretically be replaced. But that would incur a penalty in both quality and price
China's long-term plan to be more economically self-sufficient could harm Australia's major exporters, including those in the once unassailable resources sector.
The Communist power is Australia's biggest trading partner buying 35 per cent of exports worth $150billion during the last financial year.
Iron ore, the commodity used to make steel, is by far the most valuable good sent to China, but thermal coal, agricultural and service exports would be under threat if China aimed to be less reliant on imports and more focused on renewable energy.
Associate Professor Jane Golley, the director of the Australian Centre on China in the World at Canberra's Australian National University, said local exporters would be vulnerable under President Xi Jinping's plan to be more self-sufficient and generate more economic growth to legitimise Communist Party rule.
'If the Chinese government succeeds in making the Chinese economy more reliant on domestic production and consumption, that doesn't sound like a great idea for the Australian export market broadly,' she told the ABC's 7.30 program.
China in 2019-20 bought $18billion worth of Australian coal. That component included about $8billion worth of thermal coal, used for electricity generation.
China is aiming to produce net zero carbon emissions by 2060 which threatens Australia's lucrative coal exports. 'For example, they will continue to shift out of coal and towards renewable energies,' Dr Golley said.
'They're also going to open up for capital investors to come in from abroad to support that green growth and so there will be opportunities for Australians in certain markets but I don't think it will be quite as universal as it has been in the past.'