The IPCC goal of 1.5C degrees of warming may be more easily reached than we think
There is constant talk about the difficulty of reaching the "Paris" goal of 1.5C warming over pre-industrial levels. Great efforts are said to be needed if we are to reach that goal.
But notice something: We are already about one degree above pre-industrial levels. So all the Angst is about just half of one degree. That hardly seems worth getting excited about. The IPCC report on 1.5 degrees lists a number of things that would happen with such a temperature rise but none seem dramatic except for the expected sea level rise of about half a meter. And a good thing from 1.5 degrees is also listed -- that we would have more rain and less drought.
But the changes in sea level so far are heavily contested, with some scientists calling into question whether we have had any sea level rise at all in the last half century or so. So any concern there must be taken with a grain of salt.
There does seem to have been a small, slow and erratic increase in global temperatures over the last 150 years or so but even Warmists don't attribute all of that to man's activity. So in that context, a change of half a degree from present levels would seem likely to come about naturally over the current century. And if it did, would we notice such a small change? I can't see it. A temperature change of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial level would seem perfectly comfortable and unlikely to bother us. We have much greater temperature changes during every day.
So what are the Warmists going on about? They think that much larger temperature rises will happen and we will struggle to keep to .5 of a degree over what we presently have.
But that is a pure prophecy and speculation. Looking at the temperature changes so far, rises are not going to be regular nor are they likely to be great. Warmists rely on their dinky models to support prophecies of big climate change. The temperature record so far, however, suggests only slight change. There have been several extensive periods of no temperature changes at all -- e.g 1945 to 1975.
So I think the modest rise of half a degree will come about perfectly naturally, with no effort and no concern on our part at all -- JR.