Weather catastrophe in Australia: Farmers crippled by the 'worst drought in 100 years' are facing another TWO YEARS of scorching temperatures and no rain
On past form, one has to expect that this is another long-range prediction that the BoM will get wrong. On principle I predict substantial rain some time over the next summer.
It's not only form, however that makes this an odd prediction. We have just had an El Nino over 2016/2017 and there is normally at least 10 years between them. Secondly, El Nino brings warmer water to the East coast and warmer water means MORE rain, not less. So, farmers: Don't sell your farm yet.
An El Niño event has been predicted for the end of the year, leaving farmers already struggling with a devastating five-year drought facing disaster.
The Bureau of Meteorology announced the odds of an El Niño system forming this year are now twice as high as normal.
El Niño events often result in severe droughts, bringing higher temperatures, lower than average rainfall and increased risk of bushfires, lasting as long as two years.
If an El Niño does form in the latter half of 2018, it could prove catastrophic for parched Australian farmers who have been crippled by a years-long nationwide dry spell which some are describing as the worst drought in 100 years.
BOM senior forecaster David Crock said on Wednesday there is typically about a 25 per cent chance of an El Niño pattern developing.
The likelihood of one forming is now at 50 per cent, approximately double the normal probability.
'During El Niño, rainfall in eastern Australia is typically below average during winter–spring,' the Bureau of Meteorology stated.
'Daytime temperatures are also typically warmer than average for southern Australia. A neutral ENSO phase has little effect on Australian climate.
'Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the tropical Pacific will continue to warm.
'Five of eight models indicate this warming will reach El Niño levels in the southern hemisphere spring, while a sixth model reaches El Niño levels in December.'