Naughty Naomi gives us a lesson in statistics

Naomi Oreskes works in a similar way to the tyrants who claim that they "won" an election in which 99% of the population voted  for them.  Naomi goes one better than that.  She has claimed that 100% of published climate scientists agree with global warming.  That has got her much acclaim of course -- among those great lovers of tyrants, the political Left -- but no acclaim among people with any kind of skeptical mind.
But that is all old hat now so let us look at her latest effusion below.  She says a number of broadly correct and reasonable things about statistical analysis and seems to hope that we won't notice her going off the rails after that.

She starts to go off the rails when she defends the indefensible EPA verdict about secondhand smoke.  But I won't go into that here.  Fred Singer once pointed out the statistical realities there and has ever since been branded a pawn of the tobacco industry.  As usual, the Left substituted abuse for the facts. If you really want to know the facts, See here and here and here and here and here and here and here, for instance.

And after that point dear Naomi simply substitutes assertion for facts.  He entire screed about statistics might as well not exist for all the relevance that it has to what she says from that point on.  She simply says that "We know" that CO2 is warming the planet.  She gives no facts or argument to support that.  Not surprising, I guess, seeing that CO2 is NOT warming the planet.  Even many warmists (e.g. Hansen, Pachauri) now concede that there has been a warming "pause" for 18 years.

And she really gets hilarious in her final paragraph.  She says:  "We are now seeing dangerous effects worldwide, even as we approach a rise of only 1 degree Celsius"

So how long have we been "approaching" that one degree rise?  Only 150 years!  She speaks as if we could get there any minute. The fact that it took 150 years to get only two thirds of the way there she does not mention.  And what are the dangerous effects worldwide?  She does not say.  She certainly does not mention that extreme weather events have declined in frequency in recent years.

So what are we to make of this strange screed?  It is simply propaganda aimed at uninformed people and willing believers.  And the screed appears in the modern day Goebbels: The New York Times.  So that explains it all, I think

SCIENTISTS have often been accused of exaggerating the threat of climate change, but it’s becoming increasingly clear that they ought to be more emphatic about the risk. The year just concluded is about to be declared the hottest one on record, and across the globe climate change is happening faster than scientists predicted.

Science is conservative, and new claims of knowledge are greeted with high degrees of skepticism. When Copernicus said the Earth orbited the sun, when Wegener said the continents drifted, and when Darwin said species evolved by natural selection, the burden of proof was on them to show that it was so. In the 18th and 19th centuries, this conservatism generally took the form of a demand for a large amount of evidence; in the 20th century, it took on the form of a demand for statistical significance.

We’ve all heard the slogan “correlation is not causation,” but that’s a misleading way to think about the issue. It would be better to say that correlation is not necessarily causation, because we need to rule out the possibility that we are just observing a coincidence. Typically, scientists apply a 95 percent confidence limit, meaning that they will accept a causal claim only if they can show that the odds of the relationship’s occurring by chance are no more than one in 20. But it also means that if there’s more than even a scant 5 percent possibility that an event occurred by chance, scientists will reject the causal claim. It’s like not gambling in Las Vegas even though you had a nearly 95 percent chance of winning.

Where does this severe standard come from? The 95 percent confidence level is generally credited to the British statistician R. A. Fisher, who was interested in the problem of how to be sure an observed effect of an experiment was not just the result of chance. While there have been enormous arguments among statisticians about what a 95 percent confidence level really means, working scientists routinely use it.

But the 95 percent level has no actual basis in nature. It is a convention, a value judgment. The value it reflects is one that says that the worst mistake a scientist can make is to think an effect is real when it is not. This is the familiar “Type 1 error.” You can think of it as being gullible, fooling yourself, or having undue faith in your own ideas. To avoid it, scientists place the burden of proof on the person making an affirmative claim. But this means that science is prone to “Type 2 errors”: being too conservative and missing causes and effects that are really there.

Is a Type 1 error worse than a Type 2? It depends on your point of view, and on the risks inherent in getting the answer wrong. The fear of the Type 1 error asks us to play dumb; in effect, to start from scratch and act as if we know nothing. That makes sense when we really don’t know what’s going on, as in the early stages of a scientific investigation. It also makes sense in a court of law, where we presume innocence to protect ourselves from government tyranny and overzealous prosecutors — but there are no doubt prosecutors who would argue for a lower standard to protect society from crime.

When applied to evaluating environmental hazards, the fear of gullibility can lead us to understate threats. It places the burden of proof on the victim rather than, for example, on the manufacturer of a harmful product. The consequence is that we may fail to protect people who are really getting hurt.

And what if we aren’t dumb? What if we have evidence to support a cause-and-effect relationship? Let’s say you know how a particular chemical is harmful; for example, that it has been shown to interfere with cell function in laboratory mice. Then it might be reasonable to accept a lower statistical threshold when examining effects in people, because you already have reason to believe that the observed effect is not just chance.

This is what the United States government argued in the case of secondhand smoke. Since bystanders inhaled the same chemicals as smokers, and those chemicals were known to be carcinogenic, it stood to reason that secondhand smoke would be carcinogenic, too. That is why the Environmental Protection Agency accepted a (slightly) lower burden of proof: 90 percent instead of 95 percent.

In the case of climate change, we are not dumb at all. We know that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, we know that its concentration in the atmosphere has increased by about 40 percent since the industrial revolution, and we know the mechanism by which it warms the planet.

WHY don’t scientists pick the standard that is appropriate to the case at hand, instead of adhering to an absolutist one? The answer can be found in a surprising place: the history of science in relation to religion. The 95 percent confidence limit reflects a long tradition in the history of science that valorizes skepticism as an antidote to religious faith.

Even as scientists consciously rejected religion as a basis of natural knowledge, they held on to certain cultural presumptions about what kind of person had access to reliable knowledge. One of these presumptions involved the value of ascetic practices. Nowadays scientists do not live monastic lives, but they do practice a form of self-denial, denying themselves the right to believe anything that has not passed very high intellectual hurdles.

Moreover, while vigorously denying its relation to religion, modern science retains symbolic vestiges of prophetic tradition, so many scientists bend over backward to avoid these associations. A vast majority of scientists do not speak in public at all, and those who do typically speak in highly guarded, qualified terms. They often refuse to use the language of danger even when danger is precisely what they are talking about.

Years ago, climate scientists offered an increase of 2 degrees Celsius (or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) as the “safe” limit or ceiling for the long-term warming of the planet. We are now seeing dangerous effects worldwide, even as we approach a rise of only 1 degree Celsius. The evidence is mounting that scientists have underpredicted the threat. Perhaps this is another reason — along with our polarized politics and the effect of fossil-fuel lobbying — we have underreacted to the reality, now unfolding before our eyes, of dangerous climate change.


1 comment:

  1. Some words of Wisdom from a profoundly conservative philosopher who was acutely aware of the human situation in the late 20th and early 21st centuries - spontaneously spoken in 1995.

    There is a profound conflict in the heart and mind of humanity in the present epoch. The craziness that may be observed in the world is the manifestation of a universal and, therefore dangerous, collective human insanity that is becoming more and more profoundly destructive every day.
    There is much inordinate influence by insane insane humanity that is affecting the larger picture of the world. Terrible weather patterns, terrible natural environmental patterns of all kinds, and even terrible diseases are appearing all over the world, and these are the product of an over-powerful, insane humanity - which is an entire species confined to itself, a dark ego-machine that exploits and destroys all that is good, and that, in its dark point of view, reduces every one and every thing to loveless things, and meaningless motions and grotesque death.

    There have always been insane human beings, but, in earlier times, they were not as powerful as they have become in this dark time. It is only in this dark time that humans have become capable of producing effects that can change even global weather patterns, and global ecological patterns of all kinds. But human beings have always been insane in the domain of politics, for example. For countless centuries, wherever human beings, in their dark-egoity, have been capable of influencing conditional events, there has been insanity and conflict. But now, in its motion into the 21st century, the insanity of mankind is influencing even the larger oicture of the human natural circumstance. And THIS MUST BE CHANGED (his emphasis) - or there is going to be a terrible, horrific calamity on Earth!. Such a calamity is not yet inevitable, but it WILL occur if there is not a fundamental moral transformation of mankind - in its heart and mind, and in its endeavors. A FUNDAMENTAL RIGHTENING of the human-process must occur, because mankind is now having a PROFOUNDLY NEGATIVE effect on the human world-process, and even on the larger natural domain of the world-process altogether"

    Two comments on the above paragraphs.
    1. Business as usual is not an option
    2. Most/all of those on the right-wing or so called conservative side of the culture wars divide actively (in effect) champion this collective insanity/psychosis as the up-till-now greatest achievement of humankind - arguing that there is no other way.


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