By JR on Sunday, October 23, 2011
Figure 1. Temperature predictions vs. observations as portrayed by Dana1981
Warmists clearly rely on their followers being scientifically totally illiterate. The above diagram purports to show that Warmist computer projections have been matched by actual measured temperatures. But the graph clearly shows a total failure of their projections over the last 10 years. The red line (actual temperature) clearly does not rise at all overall. It just oscillates. Yet all the predictions are of rising temperature! The Warmists did NOT predict the stasis of the last 10 years. Their own data makes a mockery of them.
There's a lot more wrong with this strange graph. Don Easterbrook has a few words on it below and his full demolition of it is here
Note also: If their models did accurately predict the half a degree or so warming over the last 100 years, why are these same people warning of five degrees warming in the next 100 years? Either the models are accurate and warming is not a problem, or the models are wrong and warming is not a problem -- JR
The October 18, 2011 post on Skeptical Science entitled “How Global Temperatures Predictions Compare to What Happened (Skeptics Off Target)” by ‘Dana 1981’ claimed that “the IPCC projections have thus far been the most accurate” and “mainstream climate science predictions ….. have mostly done well …….. and the “skeptics” have generally done rather poorly.” ““several skeptics basically failed, while leading scientists such as Dr. James Hansen (a regular climate activist, as well as the top climatologist at NASA) and those at the IPCC did pretty darn well.” Figure 1 shows a graphical comparison of predictions vs. observations as portrayed by Dana1981.
However, the graph and these statements seemed to fly in the face of data, which show just the opposite—that computer models have failed badly in predicting temperatures over the past decade. So how could anyone make these claims? Figure 2 shows the IPCC temperature predictions from 2000 to 2011, taken from the IPCC website in 2000. Note that their projection is for warming of 0.6ºC (1.1ºF) between 2003 and now.